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- 2014-10-02 20:39:31
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Foreign observers have often proven to be more objective in terms of analyzing the Bulgarian political processes than many local ones. Hence, it comes as no surprise that we turned to AUBG’s Associate Professor of Political Science Robert Phillips Jr., who has been following closely Bulgaria's domestic policy for more than 20 years now.
The general elections for the Bulgarian National Assembly will take place this upcoming Sunday, October 5. They are a delicate topic to discuss, because the results will be quite indicative of what happens next.
[caption id="" align="alignleft" width="650" caption="Bulgarian protest, July 2013 source: www.balkaneu.com"]
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Bulgaria is going through a complex period given the two consecutive resignations of the previous governments, which were the result of months of protests mainly in the capital Sofia. Both protest movements were provoked by "public dissatisfaction," Prof. Phillips notes, and "they are an indication the there is a segment of society that realizes it can self-organize and become more responsive."
He said that a high turnout on the elections will mean that Bulgarians have not lost all willingness to get involved in politics.
"Not voting allows manipulation of the vote to have a greater effect," Prof. Phillips said. "So paying for a vote in low-turnout elections has a bigger effect, in high-turnout elections, it’s a waste of money. Because you simply can’t pay enough people to be able to have some sort of an impact. If people vote with invalid bulletins that doesn’t help. That way the turnout is higher but buying votes still has an impact."
The political science professor commented on the popular campaign encouraging citizens to vote, called #WHO (In Bulgarian: #КОЙ). He supported the message it conveys, “keep someone else from buying your vote”, but expressed his uncertainty whether the concern of people in regard to vote-buying will in reality get them to exercise their right to choose.
He further mentioned the phenomenon “lesser evil” as a voting strategy for those who do not trust the incumbent and would rather opt for alternatives. Phillips explained that there are some “workable options” for government formation. Asked about the pre-election campaign, Professor Phillips defined it as “incredibly disappointing” and indicated a number of reasons. The first one being the weakness of media, which is highly influenced by interior political affiliation. “There are only a few objective TV and radio programs that provide high-quality information”, Phillips specified. Moreover, in his opinion the political parties themselves are not putting enough effort to send a clear message to the people. Social media presence is scarce; even if there are publications, they are mostly links redirecting to other pages.
[caption id="" align="alignleft" width="650" caption="Prognosis for the upcoming elections by Alpha Research Agency"]
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According to Prof. Phillips, the weak campaign signals firstly, that the political classes do not feel enough social pressure yet, and secondly, that the big issues in Bulgaria are not being addressed. The need for judicial reform is the biggest problem, pointed out by the AUBG professor, “Nobody has a set strategy of how to reform the judicial system. Period. And we can’t do anything until we get the judicial system straightened out. It’s a negative drag on the economy. " As examples of the malfunction of the judicial branch in the country, Phillips mentioned the failure of the Supreme Judicial Court to appoint a new chair, for which the institution “should feel ashamed”.
Another negative example is the fact that Bulgaria is of the very few countries where politicians are prosecuted, but even if they have been formally convicted they have never done jail time. “No one has a strategy on the war against corruption nor seems to worry about high-level corruption” concluded Phillips.
Another cornerstone for the Bulgarian development is media and its concentration on a limited amount of issues, such as the case with Corporate Commercial Bank or the danger of an energy crisis. Those were the main discussion points in the already past pre-election campaign.
"Until the political classes begin to feel the pressure of the people, they will continue to do the same...The protests are not enough but they are a good start and people should be optimistic. They have to begin to think what they specifically want to happen from a protest.Let's hope we won't need them this time,"Phillips said.
Have Bulgarians been too patient and will politicians get serious this time? AUBG Daily will keep you duly informed on election results and upcoming developments.
This article is a joint effort of AUBG Daily's reporters Stella Zlatareva and Ralitsa Ilieva.
[/caption]
Bulgaria is going through a complex period given the two consecutive resignations of the previous governments, which were the result of months of protests mainly in the capital Sofia. Both protest movements were provoked by "public dissatisfaction," Prof. Phillips notes, and "they are an indication the there is a segment of society that realizes it can self-organize and become more responsive."
He said that a high turnout on the elections will mean that Bulgarians have not lost all willingness to get involved in politics.
"Not voting allows manipulation of the vote to have a greater effect," Prof. Phillips said. "So paying for a vote in low-turnout elections has a bigger effect, in high-turnout elections, it’s a waste of money. Because you simply can’t pay enough people to be able to have some sort of an impact. If people vote with invalid bulletins that doesn’t help. That way the turnout is higher but buying votes still has an impact."
The political science professor commented on the popular campaign encouraging citizens to vote, called #WHO (In Bulgarian: #КОЙ). He supported the message it conveys, “keep someone else from buying your vote”, but expressed his uncertainty whether the concern of people in regard to vote-buying will in reality get them to exercise their right to choose.
He further mentioned the phenomenon “lesser evil” as a voting strategy for those who do not trust the incumbent and would rather opt for alternatives. Phillips explained that there are some “workable options” for government formation. Asked about the pre-election campaign, Professor Phillips defined it as “incredibly disappointing” and indicated a number of reasons. The first one being the weakness of media, which is highly influenced by interior political affiliation. “There are only a few objective TV and radio programs that provide high-quality information”, Phillips specified. Moreover, in his opinion the political parties themselves are not putting enough effort to send a clear message to the people. Social media presence is scarce; even if there are publications, they are mostly links redirecting to other pages.
[caption id="" align="alignleft" width="650" caption="Prognosis for the upcoming elections by Alpha Research Agency"][/caption]
According to Prof. Phillips, the weak campaign signals firstly, that the political classes do not feel enough social pressure yet, and secondly, that the big issues in Bulgaria are not being addressed. The need for judicial reform is the biggest problem, pointed out by the AUBG professor, “Nobody has a set strategy of how to reform the judicial system. Period. And we can’t do anything until we get the judicial system straightened out. It’s a negative drag on the economy. " As examples of the malfunction of the judicial branch in the country, Phillips mentioned the failure of the Supreme Judicial Court to appoint a new chair, for which the institution “should feel ashamed”.
Another negative example is the fact that Bulgaria is of the very few countries where politicians are prosecuted, but even if they have been formally convicted they have never done jail time. “No one has a strategy on the war against corruption nor seems to worry about high-level corruption” concluded Phillips.
Another cornerstone for the Bulgarian development is media and its concentration on a limited amount of issues, such as the case with Corporate Commercial Bank or the danger of an energy crisis. Those were the main discussion points in the already past pre-election campaign.
"Until the political classes begin to feel the pressure of the people, they will continue to do the same...The protests are not enough but they are a good start and people should be optimistic. They have to begin to think what they specifically want to happen from a protest.Let's hope we won't need them this time,"Phillips said.
Have Bulgarians been too patient and will politicians get serious this time? AUBG Daily will keep you duly informed on election results and upcoming developments.
This article is a joint effort of AUBG Daily's reporters Stella Zlatareva and Ralitsa Ilieva.